Ontario 2030 · Election tracker
Ontario's next election, tracked every day.
Polls, seats, riding map, promises, candidates and the dates that matter, from public sources only, reported the same way for every party.
Latest possible election date
April 11, 2030. Ontario votes.
124 seats, 63 for a majority.
Where it stands
The race today
Vote intention, 2026
Every published poll
Dots are single polls among decided voters. Lines are the average of the three most recent polls at each date. One poll is one reading; the line is the better guide.
Electoral map
Riding by riding
All ridings on one map. Tap or hover one to see who holds it and who is running there.
Analysis
This week and today
Campaign promises
What the parties have committed to
Every public commitment a party or leader makes for the 2030 election, in plain words, with the date and source. Costs are shown only when the party gives one. We record promises; we don't rate them.
| Date | Party | Promise | Cost (party's figure) | Status |
|---|
Candidates
Who is running, riding by riding
Nominated candidates and people seeking a party's nomination, riding by riding, once nominations open. MPP marks a sitting member.
| Riding | Candidate | Party | Status |
|---|
Sources: party announcements, Elections Ontario and news reports; see each row's link.
How we report it
Public sources only. No predictions or seat projections.
Promises are recorded, never rated. Every party gets the same columns, the same sources and the same corrections policy.
Calendar
Dates that matter
The house
Seats now and at the 2025 election
| Party | Leader | Now | 2025 | 2025 vote |
|---|
The Progressive Conservatives under Doug Ford won a third consecutive majority in the early election of Feb. 27, 2025, taking 80 seats; the NDP (27) remained the Official Opposition and the Liberals (14) regained official party status. PC MPP Chris Scott (Sault Ste. Marie) was removed from caucus on Sept. 22, 2025 and sits as an Independent, alongside Independent Bobbi Ann Brady. Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie, who did not hold a seat, resigned on Jan. 14, 2026 and John Fraser is interim leader until the Nov. 21, 2026 leadership result. By-elections on Sept. 3, 2026 returned Fatima Shaban (NDP, Scarborough Southwest), Susan Lahey (PC, York—Simcoe) and Jeff Beattie (PC, Hamilton East—Stoney Creek). Ontario repealed its fixed election date in Nov. 2025; the latest possible election date is April 11, 2030.
How we build this
Public numbers, reported the same way for every party.
Every figure links to its source: Elections Ontario, the Legislative Assembly of Ontario, published polls and news reports. The poll average is a plain mean of polls whose fieldwork ended within 30 days of the newest poll, or the last three polls if fewer. We don't weight pollsters, project seats or endorse anyone.
Churchill Strategy is an Edmonton event production and campaign firm. We have worked with conservative parties in Alberta, Saskatchewan and federally, and with a campaign in Alberta's 2026 referendum. That is why we keep this page to sourced facts. See something wrong? Email winston.pon@churchillstrategy.ca and we'll correct it the same day.