Manitoba 2027 · Election tracker
Manitoba's next election, tracked every day.
Polls, seats, promises, candidates and the dates that matter, from public sources only. Updated each morning; read the week's analysis below.
Where it stands
The race today
Vote intention, 2026
Every published poll
Dots are single polls among decided voters. Lines are the average of the three most recent polls at each date. One poll is one reading; the line is the better guide.
Analysis
This week and today
Campaign promises
What the parties have committed to
Every public commitment a party or leader makes for the 2027 election, in plain words, with the date and source. Costs are shown only when the party gives one. We record promises; we don't rate them.
| Date | Party | Promise | Cost (party's figure) | Status |
|---|
Candidates
Who is running, riding by riding
Nominated candidates and people seeking a party's nomination, riding by riding. MLA marks a sitting member.
| Riding | Candidate | Party | Status |
|---|
Sources: party announcements, Elections Manitoba and news reports; see each row's link.
Calendar
Dates that matter
The house
Seats now and at the 2023 election
| Party | Leader | Now | 2023 | 2023 vote |
|---|
Wab Kinew's NDP has governed with a majority since winning 34 of 57 seats on October 3, 2023. By-elections since then: Tuxedo (2024, NDP gain from PC after Heather Stefanson resigned), Transcona (March 18, 2025, NDP hold), Spruce Woods (August 26, 2025, PC hold) and The Pas-Kameesak (July 21, 2026, NDP hold after Amanda Lathlin's death). Three MLAs now sit as Independents: Mark Wasyliw (Fort Garry, removed from NDP caucus 2024), Bob Lagassé (Dawson Trail, left PC caucus March 2026) and Obby Khan (Fort Whyte), who quit as PC leader and left caucus on September 28, 2026 after a contested caucus confidence vote. Konrad Narth is interim PC leader and no permanent leadership timeline has been set; Willard Reaves has led the Liberals since September 2025.
How we build this
Public numbers, reported the same way for every party.
Every figure links to its source: Elections Manitoba, the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba (43rd Legislature, 3rd Session), published polls and news reports. The poll average is a plain mean of polls whose fieldwork ended within 30 days of the newest poll, or the last three polls if fewer. We don't weight pollsters, project seats or endorse anyone.
Churchill Strategy is an Edmonton event production and campaign firm. We have worked with conservative parties in Alberta, Saskatchewan and federally, and with a campaign in Alberta's 2026 referendum. That is why we keep this page to sourced facts. See something wrong? Email winston.pon@churchillstrategy.ca and we'll correct it the same day.