Monday InsightsIssue 1 · Oct. 26, 2026
Alberta stays, B.C. elects a majority, and Ottawa's budget date
Welcome to the first Monday Insights from Churchill Strategy. Every Monday, we explain what happened in Canadian politics last week and what it means for you. A chart for every story.
The week in four numbers
01Alberta
Alberta voted to stay in Canada
Elections Alberta, unofficial, 5,535 of 5,536 voting areas
What happened. Albertans answered 10 questions in last week’s referendum. The biggest, Question 10, asked whether Alberta should stay in Canada or start the legal steps toward a vote on leaving. Three in four chose to stay.
Why it matters. Premier Danielle Smith said she will honour the result and will not hold another referendum on this issue. Prime Minister Mark Carney called it a great result for Canada.
What’s next. These numbers are unofficial. Elections Alberta confirms the official results, including how many people voted, on Thursday, Oct. 29.
02Alberta
The other nine questions split in two
Elections Alberta, unofficial, 5,535 of 5,536 voting areas
Questions 1 to 5 were about immigration, who can use provincial services, and voting rules. Yes won all five. Questions 6 to 9 asked about changing Canada’s Constitution. No won all four.
None were landslides. The closest was Question 4, fees for temporary residents, at 51.9 per cent Yes. The widest was Question 5, proof of citizenship to vote, at 58.1 per cent Yes.
What to watch. The government now decides how to act on each Yes result. Watch for bills when the legislature sits.
03Alberta
Where you live shaped your vote
Share who voted to stay in Canada
19 points between city and rural voters
Churchill's grouping of Elections Alberta results, 87 ridings
In cities, about 8 in 10 voters chose to stay. In rural Alberta, about 6 in 10 did. Stay still came first in 85 of Alberta’s 87 ridings.
The same pattern showed on the other nine questions: rural voters said Yes more often than city voters, by about 20 points on each one.
04British Columbia
B.C. elected a Conservative majority
47 of 93 seats for a majority (ringed dot)
Elections BC, preliminary. Final count starts Nov. 6
What happened. The B.C. Conservatives won 64 of the province’s 93 seats on Saturday, well past the 47 needed for a majority. The NDP won 27 seats and the Greens won two. Lorne Doerkson, who led the Conservatives as interim leader, is set to become premier.
Why it matters. B.C. changes government for the first time since 2017. Premier David Eby kept his own seat but resigned as NDP leader on election night. Green Leader Emily Lowan won her seat.
What’s next. These are Elections BC’s preliminary results. Mail-in and some absentee ballots are added at the final count, which starts Friday, Nov. 6. Close ridings could still change. The new premier and cabinet will be sworn in over the coming weeks.
05Ottawa
The budget lands Nov. 5
The federal budget is the government’s plan for spending and taxes. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne will present it on Thursday, Nov. 5.
Why it matters. A budget vote is a test of confidence. If the House of Commons votes a budget down, the government usually falls and an election follows.
06Across Canada
Where every legislature stands this week
Each province and territory has its own legislature. Here’s what each one is doing, from west to east and then north.
Churchill's legislation trackers, checked Oct. 23, 2026
British Columbia: The Conservatives won a majority on Saturday (see story 4). The legislature returns after the new government is sworn in.
Alberta: MLAs return Tuesday, Oct. 27, for the fall sitting.
Saskatchewan: A new session opens Tuesday, Oct. 27, with a speech from the throne: the government’s plan for the year ahead.
Manitoba: MLAs passed three bills on Oct. 15 that now wait for royal assent, the final approval. One changes the legal time limits in intimate partner violence cases.
Ontario: MPPs return Tuesday, Oct. 27. A committee is still studying a public safety bill, the Protecting Ontario’s Streets and Communities Act.
Quebec: A judge-led recount in Champlain confirmed Conservative Adriana Szalontai’s win by 186 votes. The new National Assembly first meets Tuesday, Nov. 17.
New Brunswick: A new session opened Oct. 20. Early bills include a new advocate for children, youth, seniors and mental health. The House sits again Oct. 27.
Nova Scotia: The House isn’t sitting. Its fall sitting ended Sept. 18, and no return date is set.
Prince Edward Island: The fall sitting opens Tuesday, Nov. 3.
Newfoundland and Labrador: The House isn’t sitting, and no return date is set. The spring sitting ended June 2.
Yukon: The fall sitting runs to Nov. 26 at the latest. MLAs are working through a new Yukon Firearms Act.
Northwest Territories: The fall sitting began Oct. 20. A Safer Communities and Neighbourhoods Act is being studied in committee.
Nunavut: The fall sitting opened Oct. 22 and runs to Nov. 5. MLAs started debate on next year’s capital budget.
Word of the week
Recount
When a result is very close, the ballots are counted again, by hand, with a judge in charge. It checks that the first count was right. Most recounts confirm the winner.
Dates to watch
Coming up
- Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario legislatures return
- Alberta’s official referendum results and turnout
- Federal budget
- B.C.’s final count begins
- Quebec’s new National Assembly meets
- Alberta’s next general election
Public sources only. No predictions.
Every party is reported the same way. Results are counted, never rated.
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Sources. Alberta: Elections Alberta unofficial results, 5,535 of 5,536 voting areas reported, as of 6:12 a.m. MT, Oct. 25, 2026; official results Oct. 29. Quotes: Global News and CTV News. “Cities” and “rural” are Churchill’s grouping of Alberta’s 87 ridings: 57 mostly inside a city, 30 rural or mixed. B.C.: Elections BC preliminary results, 7,237 of 7,268 ballot boxes reported, as of 1:49 a.m. PT, Oct. 25, 2026; CTV News for leaders’ results. Ottawa: Canadian Press via Advisor.ca (Oct. 20, 2026); Parliamentary Budget Officer. Quebec: Churchill’s Quebec election tracker, from the Oct. 22 judicial recount. Across Canada: Churchill’s legislation trackers, from each legislature’s official records, checked Oct. 23, 2026.
Churchill Strategy has worked with conservative parties in Alberta, Saskatchewan and federally, and with a campaign in Alberta’s 2026 referendum. Monday Insights reports results; it does not take sides.
