Canada 2029 · Election tracker
Canada's next election, tracked every day.
Polls, seats, riding map, promises, candidates and the dates that matter, from public sources only, reported the same way for every party.
Where it stands
The race today
Vote intention, 2026
Every published poll
Dots are single polls among decided voters. Lines are the average of the three most recent polls at each date. One poll is one reading; the line is the better guide.
Electoral map
Riding by riding
All ridings on one map. Tap or hover one to see who holds it and who is running there.
Analysis
This week and today
Campaign promises
What the parties have committed to
Every public commitment a party or leader makes for the 2029 election, in plain words, with the date and source. Costs are shown only when the party gives one. We record promises; we don't rate them.
| Date | Party | Promise | Cost (party's figure) | Status |
|---|
Candidates
Who is running, riding by riding
Nominated candidates and people seeking a party's nomination, riding by riding, once nominations open. MP marks a sitting member.
| Riding | Candidate | Party | Status |
|---|
Sources: party announcements, Elections Canada and news reports; see each row's link.
Calendar
Dates that matter
The house
Seats now and at the 2025 election
| Party | Leader | Now | 2025 | 2025 vote |
|---|
The Liberal Party of Canada under Mark Carney won 169 of 343 seats in the April 28, 2025 election, forming a minority government, with the Conservatives at 144, the Bloc Québécois 22, the NDP 7 and the Greens 1. Five MPs have since crossed to the Liberals (four Conservatives and one New Democrat), and the Liberals reached a majority after the April 13, 2026 by-elections, adding a gain from the Conservatives in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord on Aug. 31, 2026. Pierre Poilievre returned to the House through an Aug. 18, 2025 by-election in Battle River—Crowfoot. Six seats are now vacant after resignations in June to September 2026, two of them by MPs who left to run in the Oct. 5, 2026 Quebec election. Avi Lewis became NDP leader on March 29, 2026 and does not hold a seat.
How we build this
Public numbers, reported the same way for every party.
Every figure links to its source: Elections Canada, the House of Commons of Canada, published polls and news reports. The poll average is a plain mean of polls whose fieldwork ended within 30 days of the newest poll, or the last three polls if fewer. We don't weight pollsters, project seats or endorse anyone.
Churchill Strategy is an Edmonton event production and campaign firm. We have worked with conservative parties in Alberta, Saskatchewan and federally, and with a campaign in Alberta's 2026 referendum. That is why we keep this page to sourced facts. See something wrong? Email winston.pon@churchillstrategy.ca and we'll correct it the same day.